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  • Here are the three reasons why tariffs have yet to drive inflation higher

    Here are the three reasons why tariffs have yet to drive inflation higher

    Shoppers browse the frozen food cases at WinCo.

    Joe Jaszewski | Idaho Statesman | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

    Despite widespread fears to the contrary, President Donald Trump‘s tariffs have yet to show up in any of the traditional data points measuring inflation.

    In fact, separate readings this week on consumer and producer prices were downright benign, as indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that prices rose just 0.1% in May.

    The inflation scare is over, then, right?

    To the contrary, the months ahead are still expected to show price increases driven by Trump’s desire to ensure the U.S. gets a fair shake with its global trading partners. So far, though, the duties have not driven prices higher, save for a few areas that are particularly sensitive to higher import costs.

    At least three factors have conspired so far to keep inflation in check:

    • Companies hoarding imported goods ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
    • The time it takes for the charges to make their way into the real economy.
    • The lack of pricing power companies face as consumers tighten belts.

    “We believe the limited impact from tariffs in May is a reflection of pre-tariff stockpiling, as well as a lagged pass-through of tariffs into import prices,” Aichi Amemiya, senior economist at Nomura, said in a note. “We maintain our view that the impact of tariffs will likely materialize in the coming months.”

    This week’s data showed isolated evidence of tariff pressures.

    Canned fruits and vegetables, which are often imported, saw prices rise 1.9% for the month. Roasted coffee was up 1.2% and tobacco increased 0.8%. Durable goods, or long-lasting items such as major appliances (up 4.3%) and computers and related items (1.1%), also saw increases.

    “This gain in appliance prices mirrors what happened during the 2018-20 round of import taxes, when the cost of imported washing machines surged,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in his daily market note.

    One of the biggest tests, though, on whether the price increases will prove durable, as many economists fear, or as temporary, the prism through which they’re typically viewed, could largely depend on consumers, who drive nearly 70% of all economic activity.

    The Federal Reserve’s periodic report on economic activity issued earlier this month indicated a likelihood of price increases ahead, while noting that some companies were hesitant to pass through higher costs.

    “We have been of the position for a long time that tariffs would not be inflationary and they were more likely to cause economic weakness and ultimately deflation,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “There’s a lot of consumer weakness.”

    Indeed, that’s largely what happened during the damaging Smoot-Hawley tariffs in 1930, which many economists believe helped trigger the Great Depression.

    Tilley said he sees signs that consumers already are cutting back on vacations and recreation, a possible indication that companies may not have as much pricing power as they did when inflation started to surge in 2021.

    Fed officials, though, remain on the sidelines as they wait over the summer to see how tariffs do impact prices. Markets largely expect the Fed to wait until September to resume lowering interest rates, even though inflation is waning and the employment picture is showing signs of cracks.

    “This time around, if inflation proves to be transitory, then the Federal Reserve may cut its policy rate later this year,” Brusuelas said. “But if consumers push their own inflation expectations higher because of short-term dislocations in the price of food at home or other goods, then it’s going to be some time before the Fed cuts rates.”

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  • Why Was The Mexican Flag Chosen To Be The Primary Symbol Of The “Color Revolution” That Has Erupted In Los Angeles?

    Specific tactics may change, but the playbook is always the same.  All over the world, “color revolutions” have featured graffiti, vandalism, arson, rioting, looting and violent clashes will law enforcement officers.  The goal of the rioters is to pressure authorities into giving them what they want so that the chaos will stop.  And “color revolutions” always feature a highly visible set of colors that are deeply meaningful to the people that are being encouraged to protest.  In this case, the Mexican flag has been specifically chosen to be the primary symbol of the “color revolution” that has erupted in Los Angeles.  The following comes from the New York Times

    As images of protests in Southern California have flooded television and social media in recent days, a key question has emerged: Why are so many protesters carrying Mexican flags at an American political protest?

    That is a very good question.

    We have been bombarded by images of Mexican flags in recent days.

    In fact, the rioters that were standing on top of the burning Waymo taxis were literally waving Mexican flags

    Photos of masked provocateurs waving Mexican flags atop burning Waymo taxis spread instantly across conservative social media this weekend. Republicans pointed to them as a prime example of why President Trump called in the National Guard and how immigration had gone too far in California.

    “Look at all the foreign flags,” Stephen Miller, the deputy White House chief of staff and the architect of Mr. Trump’s domestic agenda, said Sunday on X. “Los Angeles is occupied territory.”

    The mindless rioters in the streets probably have no idea that they are following the “color revolution” playbook very precisely.

    The colors of the Mexican flag are being inextricably linked with this “color revolution”, and the goal is to intimidate the other side so that they will agree to back down…

    The idea behind this color revolution – it is organized and planned, not spontaneous or genuine – is to intimidate normal people into submitting and embracing the politicians associated with its goals in the hopes that it will stop. This is the work of the Democrat Party; the rioters are its useful idiots, acting to support the party’s goals while its maintaining deniability. But this scheme only succeeds if the target is feckless and weak, which such targets usually are.

    Of course President Trump has not shown any indication that he plans to back down any time soon, and so it appears that the left plans to take things to another level.

    On Wednesday, California Governor Gavin Newsom delivered an ominous address in which he stated that “Democracy is under assault” and “the moment we’ve feared has arrived”

    The California governor urged Americans to stand up to Mr. Trump, calling it a “perilous moment” for democracy and the country’s long-held legal norms.

    “California may be first, but it clearly won’t end here,” Mr. Newsom said, speaking to cameras from a studio in Los Angeles. “Other states are next. Democracy is next.”

    “Democracy is under assault right before our eyes — the moment we’ve feared has arrived,” he added.

    This was a signal.

    For a very long time, leftists have been holding discussions about what they will do once Trump “becomes a dictator”, and when Newsom used the phrase “the moment we’ve feared” he knew exactly what he was doing.

    Newsom is actively trying to make the protests even worse.

    But Newsom isn’t going to go out into the streets himself.

    He is counting on “useful idiots” to do the heavy lifting for him.

    We all know that the Mexican flag evokes very powerful emotions for Mexicans living in the United States.

    But is there another reason why it was specifically chosen as the primary symbol of this “color revolution”?

    You may have noticed that the Palestinian flag also features the colors red, green and white, and it has been showing up alongside the Mexican flag at anti-ICE protests all over the country.  For example, the following photo was taken in Chicago by Gateway Pundit contributor Terry Newsome

    The radical left would love to merge the anti-ICE movement with the pro-Palestinian movement.

    If both groups work side by side to cause chaos all over the country in the months ahead, it will be one long, hot summer.

    And there are certainly a lot of radical Islamic groups in this country that are in a revolutionary mood.  For example, an imam in Michigan is calling for “a revival of jihad”

    In a provocative sermon sure to spark controversy and heighten security concerns, Michigan Imam Dr. Sherif Gindy (also spelled Sharif), linked to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), urged a revival of jihad. He attributed the decline of hijab-wearing among girls and the global closure of mosques to the abandonment of jihad.

    Speaking at the Islamic Organization of North America (IONA) on May 23, and reported by MEMRI (The Middle East Media Research Institute), Gindy mourned the shuttering of mosques in Europe and the destruction of places of worship in India. He claimed the only way to turn things around is to revive jihad – not just the spiritual struggle, but the kind involving force, power, and strength.

    Once war with Iran starts, I think that we will see vast numbers of Muslims out in the streets, and of course they will be joining the vast numbers of anti-ICE protesters that are already there.

    But President Trump is not going to back down.

    Just hours ago, he posted a message on his Truth Social account that made it clear that he is not going to let the rioters win…

    Generations of Army heroes did not shed their blood on distant shores only to watch our Country be destroyed by invasion and Third World lawlessness here at home, like is happening in California. As Commander in Chief, I will not let that happen…

    President Trump is also warning that his administration is going to go after whoever is financing these protests

    “Somebody’s financing it, and we’re going to find out through Pam Bondi and the Department of Justice who it is,” he said. “Under the Trump administration, this anarchy will not stand. We will not allow federal agents to be attacked, and we will not allow an American city to be invaded and conquered by a foreign enemy.”

    That is good to hear.

    Those that are funding the riots need to be held accountable.

    And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is telling us that the National Guard could soon be deployed in more cities

    The federal government’s deployment of National Guard troops could expand beyond Los Angeles, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a congressional hearing Wednesday in Washington.

    “Part of it is getting ahead of a problem, so that if in other places, if there are other riots in places where law enforcement officers are threatened, we would have the capability to surge the national guard there if necessary,” Hegseth said.

    The Trump administration is fully committed to law and order.

    Of course the other side is fully committed to their cause as well.

    According to NBC News, a total of 1,800 anti-Trump protests are scheduled for Saturday…

    “The goal here is to deprive Trump of what he wants in this moment, which is a story about him being the all-powerful political figure of our time, and instead create a contrast with normal, everyday people demonstrating that power in this country still resides with the people,” said Ezra Levin, a co-founder of the progressive group Indivisible, who is helping organize what participants have dubbed a nationwide “No Kings” demonstration.

    If past protests are a guide, the participants could number in the millions, he said. A total of 1,800 rallies are expected, with events in each congressional district, he added.

    I wrote quite a bit about the “No Kings” protests yesterday.

    I can’t recall ever seeing 1,800 simultaneous protests on the same day.

    We were expecting the left to go completely nuts, and now it has happened.

    On top of everything else, now there is a tremendous amount of speculation that a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could be coming soon.

    Global events are starting to happen at a speed that is absolutely breathtaking, and I have a feeling that we have a very “interesting” summer ahead of us.

    Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

    About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

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  • Chinese rare earths licence rules raise concerns about IP theft

    This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to get the newsletter delivered every weekday morning. Explore all of our newsletters here

    Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT, your early morning business briefing. Here’s what we’re covering today:

    • A plane crash near Ahmedabad airport in India

    • China’s control of the rare earths market

    • A sharp rise in oil prices

    • Stablecoins going mainstream

    • And the boom in sports tourism


    We start with an exclusive story about China’s control of rare earths, the critical minerals that are widely used in electronics, fighter jets, electric motor vehicles and wind turbines that were central to Washington-Beijing talks this week in London.

    What’s happening: Western companies say Beijing is demanding sensitive business information to secure rare earths as part of its export approval process. These include production details, images of products and facilities and confidential customer lists, according to multiple companies and official guidelines. “They ask for a lot of things, really a lot of things,” said a director whose company imports speaker parts to Italy from China.

    Why it matters: The extensive requirements have raised concerns about potential misuse of data and the exposure of trade secrets, with some companies in sensitive industries finding it difficult to comply with or even apply for the export licences. China has significant leverage as it dominates the sector. China introduced the stricter controls in early April as tensions with the US ratcheted higher but has not said whether it will abandon them as part of the framework agreement with the US.

    • China is winning: Beijing has used rare earth controls to beat Trump in the first skirmishes of the trade war, writes Alan Beattie.

    And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

    • Air India plane crash: A flight to London Gatwick airport has crashed in Ahmedabad in western India shortly after take-off. Here’s the latest.

    • Economic data: The US publishes May producer price index inflation data a day after it was confirmed that the annual consumer price index rose less than expected in May.

    • Companies: Adobe is expected to report a rise in second-quarter revenue thanks to strong demand for its artificial intelligence-integrated photography, illustration and video software. BlackRock hosts an investor day in New York.

    • Congress: New York governor Kathy Hochul, Minnesota governor Tim Walz and Illinois governor JB Pritzker testify before the House oversight committee on their policies regarding undocumented migrants.

    The FT will host its annual Future of Asset Management North America event in October with senior executives and leading asset managers attending. Find out more.

    Five more top stories

    1. Oil prices jumped yesterday amid fears of an escalation in Middle East tensions, after the US ordered dependants of service members in parts of the region to leave. The rise in crude prices came hours after Trump said he was now “less confident” of a nuclear deal with Iran.

    2. The board of the Fulbright Program has resigned in protest at what it has described as political interference from the Trump administration. Political appointees at the state department had cancelled Fulbright scholarships for dozens of academics and students, mainly on the basis of their research topics, people familiar with the matter said. Here’s more from the board’s statement.

    3. The Pentagon has launched a review of the 2021 Aukus nuclear submarine deal with the UK and Australia to determine whether to scrap the project, according to people familiar with the matter. The move has triggered anxiety in London and Canberra, as ending the agreement would destroy a pillar of security co-operation between the allies.

    4. A jury convicted Harvey Weinstein of one sexual assault charge but acquitted him of another, delivering a split verdict in his retrial on sexual assault accusations spanning his career as a Hollywood producer. The jurors have not yet reached a decision on a third charge of rape against the former Miramax studio chief. Jurors will reconvene today to break the deadlock.

    5. City of London groups are pushing staff to return to the office more frequently, with Deutsche Bank, UBS, Peel Hunt and others tightening work from home rules. The shift to more office attendance and a return to pre-pandemic working patterns is at the centre of a fight for office space and talent.

    • Apollo: The investment group is delaying recruiting junior bankers until next year, after tensions between banks and the private equity sector over securing young talent.

    Today’s big read

    Stablecoins were created to boost trading in cryptocurrency markets, enabling buying and selling without the use of a bank. Until recently, ease of use and anonymity made them a de facto currency reserve for crypto traders and a conduit for crime including drug trafficking and money laundering. But helped by the return of Donald Trump to the White House stablecoins are becoming increasingly mainstream — a development that could have profound implications for the global financial system.

    We’re also reading . . . 

    • The dollar: The weakening US currency has turned fund managers everywhere into currency traders, writes Katie Martin — whether they like it or not.

    • UK spending review: After nearly a year, Labour has made its big play, writes Robert Shrimsley. So why are some of us not immediately convinced?

    • AI sycophants: OpenAI, Google DeepMind and Anthropic are all stepping up efforts to tackle a growing problem: chatbots telling people what they want to hear.

    • Starbucks: The coffee shop chain has promised “the biggest human capital investment in connection” in its history. Will its big bet on baristas pay off?

    Chart of the day 

    Investors are pouring money into silver and platinum as they seek “gold alternatives” amid growing concerns that the haven is overvalued. Both metals are up more than 10 per cent this month.

    Take a break from the news

    From the Tour de France in Scotland to the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, tourist boards are discovering the benefits of luring big-name sporting events from their traditional homes. Sports tourism is now one of the fastest-growing segments in travel. But will it last?

    A rugby league supporter in Las Vegas during the warm-up for matches this year © Getty Images

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  • What is IEEPA and why is Trump using it to impose tariffs? : Planet Money : NPR

    Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    When President Trump announced his sweeping new tariffs this year, many trade law experts were startled. Typically, presidents don’t have the authority to impose broad tariffs with a snap of their fingers.

    But Trump’s advisors have an unusual new legal theory. They say that as long as there’s a national emergency of some kind, Trump may be able to create whatever tariffs he wants. This is a creative interpretation of a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. To justify his latest tariffs, the president declared national emergencies involving illegal immigration, the fentanyl crisis, and the trade deficit.

    But no president has ever tried to use the law in this way.

    Now, the fate of Trump’s tariffs — and the creative legal theory behind them — lies with the courts. About a dozen lawsuits have challenged his tariffs, claiming that they are unlawful and possibly even unconstitutional. And some judges have started to agree.

    On today’s show: What are the President’s powers when it comes to tariffs? Where do they come from? What are their limits? And, what will be the fate of Trump’s tariffs?

    For more on Trump’s tariffs:

    This episode was hosted by Willa Rubin and Jeff Guo. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Harry Paul with an assist from Gilly Moon. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money‘s executive producer.

    Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.

    Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.

    Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

    Music: Universal Production Music – “Nonsense,” “Pop and Lock,” and “Pulse Hop”

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